Methods for Measuring the Effects of the EU Presidency on International Tourism

This study uses time-series techniques and econometric approaches
to quantify the effects that organizing an EU presidency has on the
tourism exports of a country. The approach of explaining tourism
revenues by a time-series intervention model filters out special effects
(data discontinuations, exchange rates, events, media reports, etc) by
outlier detection methods, maps influences from trends, the business
cycle and seasonal effects in an ARIMA model and depicts the effect
of an EU presidency by way of an intervention variable. Using
econometric indicator approaches, a country’s tourism exports are
controlled for seasonal and special influences, habitual effects and
demand trends by way of suitable indicators and a dummy variable
is used to test whether the EU presidency makes a statistically
significant contribution to the revenues from tourism.